2.0: less stringent, less impact on mobility (we 6th November 2020)

11th November

Lockdown Begins

Lockdown rules across the country were introduced at 00:01 on Thursday 5th November.

After Saturday’s announcement and before lockdown began, we saw a burst of +2%pt mobility to leave us at 77% Mobility (31st October to 3rd November).

Post-lockdown mobility is now 69% (4th – 8th November), according to data from our mobile partner Three, versus the pre lockdown baseline of 100. The chart below shows the weekly mobility index from March to date, showcasing the effect of the latest restrictions in context with the March lockdown.

With the whole UK in lockdown conditions as of Thursday, we have split the data out into 2 separate runs to encompass both pre and post lockdown mobility.

The Pre-lockdown rush (31st October – 3rd November)

Mobility levels across the country – already on the rise last week in all non-lockdown areas, increased a further 2% with particularly notable uplifts in Coastal towns such as Brightlingsea, Silloth and Newbiggin By the Sea (+10.3, +10.2, +8.01).

Retail spend, already up 5.5% from February Pre-Covid levels (ONS September) received a further boost.

After the announcement Saturday, Google Mobility data reported a 30% increase in retail and recreation footfall.

Retail shopping increased 9% (Springboard), hairdresser bookings increased 30% (Regis) and restaurant bookings increased by 11% (OpenTable) as revellers enjoyed their last pre-lockdown past-times.

This drove mobility uplifts in key towns with multiple stores, restaurants and bars such as Colindale, Workington and Market Harborough (+6.11, +5.95, +5.82 respectively) to the extent that retailers across the board extended their opening hours to cope with surge in demand

Lockdown, but different

This November’s lockdown measures are significantly less stringent than those imposed in March. The below table (Clear Channel) shows a summary of the differences in restrictions from March vs November.

With unlimited outdoor exercise and schools and many businesses remaining open we are seeing a persisting healthy mobility available for access through OOH.

The latest National Three mobility level is 69%, this constitutes just a 6% week-on-week decrease bringing us in-line with late June mobility levels, when restrictions were already being removed. This decrease amounts to roughly 1/6 of the decrease that we saw from the lockdown in March.

Mobility levels vary regionally, with Regions such as the South West experiencing the largest decline (-9.59), whereas Wales, having gone into a strict lockdown on the 23rd October, remains stable week-on-week at 31% mobility.

London mobility decreases by 6.8% to 60% mobility (from 67% last week), fuelled largely by Outer London locations such as Croydon and Bromley which decreased by -8.3 and -8.6 respectively. Inner London boroughs with multiple workplaces such as City of London and Westminster see marginal decreases of -2 and -3.5 respectively.

What to expect next?

France went into lockdown a week ahead of the UK and are facing similar restrictions. Analysis of mobility levels in France, provides us with an indication of what we can expect to come next.

France, like the UK, began their lockdown over a weekend, by Monday we saw outdoor mobility levels increase 13% (Google Mobility data) after only three days. The UK, like France, can anticipate a significant boost to mobility next week as the populous returns to weekday routines.

Compared to the March UK lockdown we see only a fraction of the decrease in mobility (1/6).

While the first lockdown had a slow decline and a slow recovery, we can expect far faster recovery levels as the public maintains their more practiced lockdown routines.

With essential retail remaining open and 6 in 10 workers still visiting workplaces (Mobility Mindset, Posterscope and Dipsticks) we expect to see that many key behaviours remain consistent, supporting stable mobility levels going forwards.

The OOH opportunity

As Christmas approaches, we typically see an increase of +1/3 in household spend, with £29.3 billion spent at supermarkets in the run up to Christmas last year.

Recent predictions by Kantar are that Q4 supermarket spend will be up 8.4% this year, with more people purchasing food from supermarkets than dining out in restaurants.

Even in lockdown conditions, 90p in every £1 of grocery spend is spent in-store (ONS), making Supermarket Point of Sale OOH screens a uniquely potent tool in influencing supermarket spend.

Roadside OOH offers 1.5 billion fortnightly impacts to reach consumers, affect purchase behaviours and give brands unmissable visibility in times of uncertainty

With many more millions of impacts available in other environments, Posterscope, fuelled by the most comprehensive array of location datasets, can provide the clearest view of opportunity in the OOH space to provide success for brands in this crucial Christmas period.